This could be an out-of-stock Christmas season for European and American suppliers. Plug connectors, JST PH connector, Rear Bicycle Reflector should be noted. At present, it is getting closer and closer to the Christmas promotion, but the strong demand for consumer goods, labor shortage, the rebound of COVID-19, coupled with the domino effect brought by the typhoon, make many important global ports blocked, delayed cargo delivery, high and even shipping difficulties, and the global supply chain is also broken.Data show that the average global stay time of the container ships in port is currently reaching 370 hours, nearly nine times longer compared with before the outbreak.The global port congestion has offset more than 3 million TEU capacity, or about 12.5% of the global capacity, while also pushing up shipping freight.However, a shipping analyst pointed out that in China, transport demand declined as commodities adjusted and export growth slowed, and power rationing measures in many provinces and cities, causing a longer order delivery cycle for domestic enterprises."Second-hand freight rates on the eastern and western US routes have been on a downward trend since the end of September, and the general ship freight rates are close to being halved compared with the peak period."Said a freight forwarding in Shanghai.Some enterprises took advantage of the lower shipping prices, accelerated the pace of inventory clearance, orders have also increased.According to Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, China's exports are still the main force to calm global inflation.However, as the prices of raw materials rise and freight rates continue to rise, China's export prices are also rising, which may bring a new impact on the global economic situation.As the pace of the festival approaching, shipments, foreign trade people must be alert to these three risks!
The epidemic has worsened in many countries
With the advent of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global epidemic situation is likely to become severe again.Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States continues to deteriorate, which once again has a negative impact on global trade.
According to the real-time Worldometer statistics, as of 6:00 Beijing time on November 2, the total number of COVID-19 cases were 247.772 million confirmed worldwide, with a total of 5.019 million deaths.
The United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine are the five countries with the largest number of new confirmed cases.Russia, Ukraine, Romania, the United States and Iran are the five countries with the largest number of new deaths.
As of 6:00 Beijing time on November 2,58,000 new confirmed cases and 545 new deaths had occurred on the same day.Over the past week, more than 70,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and more than 1,300 deaths per day.
On November 1, the Ministry of Health and Social Security showed that in the past 24 hours, more than 40,000 new COVID-19 confirmed cases, with 9.097 million cases; 40 new deaths and more than 140,000 deaths.
Russia has reported more than 40,000 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 1,155 new COVID-19 deaths, according to the new data released on Russia's novel coronavirus epidemic prevention website on Monday.Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out in a meeting with the heads of the Russian defense Ministry and military enterprises in Sochi on Monday that Russia faces the COVID-19 very complex situation, with more than 40,000 infections per day, and "there have never been so many cases before."
As of November 1, Ukraine had added 13,900 new new coronavirus patients, including 905 children and 111 health workers, according to the official website of the Ukrainian Ministry of Health.
The outbreak also rebounded sharply. France reported more than 7,000 new cases of COVID-19 in a single day on October 30, the highest in a single day since September 21.France has not yet gotten rid of COVID-19, and the government may need to escape COVID-19, and the government may need to contain the further deterioration in the epidemic, but it should not restart the winter.
Next, the global Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year and other continuous holidays, a large number of personnel flow and gathering is inevitable, will become the biggest challenge of the global epidemic prevention.
The supply chain crisis is intensifying
Perhaps the most current concern in Europe is that Russia suddenly announced a nine-day holiday due to the fierce epidemic, and national production will be affected, which will once again trigger the "cut off supply" crisis of natural gas, and further boost natural gas prices.Because the EU is heavily dependent on Russia for energy imports, the EU's natural gas demand reached 560 billion cubic meters in 2020, with imports from Russia accounting for 39%.
In recent weeks, gas prices in Europe, with wholesale gas prices soaring in the first quarter of 2022, up more than five times from the beginning of the year, and wholesale gas prices in the Netherlands have risen nearly eight times since the beginning of the year.
In addition, from the perspective of macro policy, the current epidemic in Europe, making the economic recovery process challenging again, and the ECB's monetary policy may continue to be loose.ECB President David Lagarde's latest statement is that the ECB has yet to escape the impact of COVID-19 and will continue to implement monetary policy to support the COVID-19 economy.
In the current situation, the Fed's attitude is more critical, with its economic report slowing in current supply chain outages, rising prices, a shortage of available workers and concerns about the virus infection.Separately, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mike Mister said that the idea of raising interest rates is not a short-term consideration at all, and that the Fed will not raise interest rates "very soon".
Note that the current heavy backlog in ports prevents access to the U. S. supply chain.As of the morning of October 19,62 container vessels were queuing off the coast of Southern California, carrying 200,000 containers, many carrying parts and raw materials needed from U. S. factories to produce products at home to a record high, CNN reported.
Long port congestion has had a huge impact on the U. S. economy, not only disrupting the supply chain, causing a large number of goods out of stock, a large number of factories slowing down or even stopping production, and even affecting the recovery process of the US economy.
Logistics costs continue to erode the profits of related export enterprises
Port congestion is one of the reasons for the surge in sea freight rates in the past two years.However, recently, Nansha Port, Yantian Port to the west coast of the United States shipping prices fell significantly, and even some popular routes prices fell by 51.4%.
Export freight rates at Ningbo Zhoushan Port fell for four consecutive weeks from late September, with the US-West route falling 34% from $16,000 at its peak to $10,000.European routes have also failed to escape price declines.
For domestic enterprises, the downward shipping prices is a good time for production and shipments. Many enterprises have accelerated the pace of export, which has released the inventory pressure of enterprises to a certain extent.
"Since the end of last year, sea freight rates have risen, and scalpers have been engaged in disorderly speculation, further raising freight rates, leading to the inflated fire of popular routes.Now is the signal of fire fire."Said Kang Shuchun, president of the International forwarforwarBranch of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and general manager of China International Shipping Network.
However, a shipping analyst said that international port congestion and capacity tensions are still not eased; coupled with the impact of the repeated epidemic, subsequent supply chain bottlenecks may intensify.As Black Friday and Christmas approaches, demand in Europe and America will grow, and shipping prices are likely to remain high in the short term.
At the same time, foreign trade enterprises also have to face the rise in various surcharges.
Although Duffy Shipping and Herbert have announced "frozen spot freight", they actually continue to collect surcharges.
Mediterranean shipping recently issued two shipping price increases, including three categories: comprehensive rate increase (GRI), peak season surcharge (PSS) and port congestion fee (CGS).For example, the GRI for the $2,400, $3,000, and $2,000, or 4000 for the peak season surcharge (PSS).
Considering that the current shipping prices and container prices are still at a high level, the logistics costs will continue to erode the profits of related export enterprises and affect the operation and development of enterprises.
Post time: Nov-09-2021